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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABNT20 KNHC 292346
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 20-25 mph. Associated shower activity is
poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any
development should be slow to occur.  Regardless of development,
this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of
the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern
Caribbean Sea during the weekend.  By the middle of next week, the
wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could become more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and
a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles south of
Cabo Verde continues to show signs of organization.  Although this
system does not have a well-defined circulation at this time, some
development is still possible during the next day or two before the
disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central
tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart