| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262207
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2135 UTC Mon Sep 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Roslyn is centered near 16.8N 118.8W at 26/2100Z,
or about 620 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, moving northeast or 40 degrees at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Currently, numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the northeast
quadrant of the storm. Roslyn should begin to weaken
tonight, becoming a depression Tuesday night, and is expected to
remain west of the offshore forecast zones off Baja California.
Please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers WTPZ23 KNHC/TCMEP3, or visit the NHC website at
http://hurricanes.gov for additional details.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered 12N140W at 26/2100Z,
or about 980 nm east-southeast of HILO Hawaii, moving west-
northeast or 285 degrees at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within about 180
nm in the southeast semicircle of the center. A turn toward the
north is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-
northeast on Tuesday, with the center remaining E of 140W through
Thursday. T.D.Nineteen-E is forecast to gradual strengthen during
the next couple of days. Please refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers WTPZ24KNHC/TCMEP4, or
visit the NHC website at http://hurricanes.gov for additional
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 09N110W to
10N115W. The monsoon trough resumes from 14N120W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 12N125W to 13N135W to T.D. Nineteen-E near 12N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of the
monsoon trough axis between 85W and 105W. Scattered moderate
convection also noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough
axis between 120W and 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Southerly swell of 5 to 7 ft will expand across the waters off
Baja California Sur on the eastern periphery of T.S. Roslyn. The
main area of winds and seas will remain beyond 250 nm, but squalls
are possible across Clarion Island and adjacent waters to the west
tonight and early Tuesday. Building high pressure over the Great
Basin to the north of the region will allow a brief surge of fresh
northerly winds across the northern Gulf of California through
late Tuesday morning.

A cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico
waters tonight followed by a stronger cold front on Thursday.
High pressure behind the fronts will likely induce the first Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event of the season by Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Marine guidance suggests Northerly winds of
20-30 kt with seas up to 9-10 ft by Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly light and variable winds are noted north of the monsoon
trough while gentle to locally moderate south to southwest flow
is expected south of monsoon trough the middle of the week. Combined
seas of 3-6 ft, primarily in long-period southwest swell, are
expected through the middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front moving southeast out of the north central Pacific
will weaken the subtropical ridge to the north of the region for
the next couple of days. This will maintain gentle to moderate
northeast winds across most of the region outside of areas of
tropical cyclone activity and north of the monsoon trough with 5
to 6 ft seas. moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow will
dominate south of the monsoon trough with 6 to 7 ft seas. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 26-Sep-2016 22:08:15 UTC