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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W OR ABOUT 708 NM W OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 
315 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 180 NM AND 300 NM IN 
THE NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE 
LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W OR ABOUT 1095 
NM ESE OF HILO HAWAII OR ABOUT 1595 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING SSE OR 160 DEG AT 3 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. A WEAKENING 
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRI AND A TURN TOWARD THE E AND NE 
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING....RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES 
INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM 
NE OF THE LOW WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 8-12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE 
WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 300 NM 
NW OF A LINE FROM 14N91W TO 10N100W. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE 
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT 
MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
11N97W TO 08N107W TO 10N113W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N  
TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 124W 
AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 
40N144W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N119W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN 
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE 
INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES 
UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM 
LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF 
THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Aug-2014 21:45:35 UTC