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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031109 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN MAY 03 2015

ADDING ADDITIONAL WORDING ABOUT LARGE SWELL EVENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N80W TO 4N95W TO 8N115W TO 6N127W. ITCZ 
6N127W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 77W-91W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 330 NM S OF AXIS FROM 117W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...    

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 34N128W TO 25N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE 
TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N113W. A 100-125 KT 
JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 21N140W TO 30N120W INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS N OF 20N W OF 110W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 105W. NLY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL 
CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN WILL 
DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT SUN NIGHT. 

LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N AND NE 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND HAS REACHED THE OFFSHORE 
WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. MORNING 
ALTIMETER PASSES MEASURED SEAS 12-14 FT W THROUGH SW OF THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL 
WATERS HAD REACHED 8 FT. THIS LARGE AND VERY STRONG SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 132W. 
SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL ALSO ENTER THE S PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-10 FT BY 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LARGE VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL 
GENERATE VERY LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG 
THE REGIONAL COASTS AND WITHIN THE SURFZONE THROUGHOUT THE 
WEEKEND.

$$
DGS

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Page last modified: Sunday, 03-May-2015 11:09:15 UTC