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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT 
30/2100 UTC MOVING S AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH RACHEL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN 
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N101W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED 
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A 
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY 
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. GLOBAL 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY 
ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW 
PARALLELING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE 
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... 
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N92W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 
92W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE 
COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED 
TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AND BROADER 700 MB CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 15N101W TO 12N114W TO 13N124W TO 11N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 11N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 
108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL 
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 
15N101W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH 
THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS GFS 
AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. 
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE 
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF 
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 133W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST 
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST...REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Sep-2014 21:11:23 UTC