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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010258
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 01 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Hurricane Lester is centered at 18.2N 141.2W, or about 795 nm
east of Hilo, Hawaii at 0300 UTC Sep 01, moving west at 12 kt
around the southern periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
105 kt, with gusts to 130 kt. Associated convection over
forecast waters are numerous moderate from 17N to 20N W of 139W.
A general weakening trend is forecast during the next 24 hours.
The center of Lester has crossed 140W and all associated
conditions are forecast to shift west of 140W early Fri morning.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest high seas forecast
under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N98W to 13N110W to
10N120W to 13N133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 15N east of 100W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 100W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge will maintain gentle to moderate nw flow,
with 3 to 6 ft seas, across the Pacific waters adjacent to the
Baja Peninsula tonight. Little change then expected through Sun
night, except for the possibility of a tropical low, or tropical
cyclone, developing near Guerrero, Mexico offshore waters on
Sat. This low is expected to track northwest on Sat and Sun,
reaching near 18N111W on Monday night. 

A surface trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and
across the northern Gulf of California supporting light and
variable flow across the Gulf of California through Monday
night, except increasing to moderate southerly flow between 30N
and 31N on early Saturday morning, and fresh to locally strong
southerly flow expected in the same area early Sunday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds will prevail over Panama
and Colombia offshore waters through Thursday evening. Light to
gentle w to nw winds will continue over the remainder offshore
zones through Sunday night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned, a quasi-stationary surface ridge
will extend from near 32N140W to near 20N118W through Sun night.
In the wake of Lester on Thu, moderate to fresh ne to e flow
will develop s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough, with
combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little change through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh n to ne flow is forecast n of the
ridge, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas through the weekend.

An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles sw of the
s-central coast of Mexico late this week, or early next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development in 3 to 5 days as this system tracks northwestward. 

$$
Ramos