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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1307 UTC Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec...satellite-derived wind data confirmed the 
presence of gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec earlier
this morning. Winds will diminish rapidly from near gale force 
this morning to 20 kt or less by this evening as high pressure 
over eastern Mexico rapidly weakens.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient has 
tightened between building high pressure west of the Baja 
California peninsula and a trough over western Mexico. Fresh to 
strong winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte. 
Elsewhere winds are below advisory levels. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range in NW swell over the offshore waters off the coast of Baja
California, 4-6 ft over the southern half of the Gulf of 
California, 1-3 ft over the northern Gulf of California, and 5-7 
ft off SW Mexico. The tight pressure gradient will maintain 
fresh to strong winds west of the Baja California peninsula north
of 23N through early Friday. The area of high pressure west of 
the area will weaken by Saturday in response to low pressure
approaching from the west. Winds will diminish below advisory 
criteria accordingly. NW swell will continue propagating SE 
during the next few days and maintain seas greater than 8 ft off 
the coast of Baja California. Seas are expected to subside below 
8 ft by Friday night. Another cold front will introduce another
round of NW swell to Baja California Norte by Monday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail through Saturday. Winds will
freshen off the coast of Central America Saturday night through
Sunday night as gap winds develop in response to building high 
pressure over the Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Subsiding NW swell continue to propagate across the forecast 
waters. Seas greater than 8 ft cover much of the forecast waters
north of 05N and west of 115W. Satellite-derived sea height data
indicate seas as high as 12 ft near 29N124W. Areal coverage of 
seas greater than 8 ft have begun to decrease and will continue 
to do so for the remainder of the week as the high pressure ridge
to the north and low pressure trough over eastern Mexico weaken.
By Friday seas will subside below 8 ft over most of the forecast
area, except over the NW waters due to the arrival of a cold 
front which will usher in a fresh set of NW swell. Combined seas
associated with this swell will peak around 12 ft Saturday night
over the NW waters. Strong to near gale winds are expected both 
ahead of, and behind, the front as it crosses the northern 
waters this weekend. 

$$
cam


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Feb-2017 15:47:10 UTC