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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 1545 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N-11N ALONG 91W MOVING W 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE 
FROM 03N-07N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE FROM 07N TO 11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N-14N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT 15 
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM 
03N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N-14N...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W 
AND 105W. LOW PRES IS FORECAST DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE 
AND REACH NEAR 10N108W AT 1007 MB ON WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT 
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AROUND MID WEEK 
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48 
HOURS. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N117W AND MOVING W ABOUT 
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
BETWEEN 120-240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 10N120W BY EARLY WED...AND TO NEAR 
10N123W BY LATE THU WHILE WEAKENING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W MOVING SLOWLY 
WESTWARD. THE LOW REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AS FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS IT DISLODGED OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND UNDERNEATH 
THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING 
WELL TO ITS E...HAS WARMED DURING THE MORNING. ONLY SMALL 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 125W-129W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE NOT 
IDENTIFIABLE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 32N130W...AND QUICKLY MOVING 
EASTWARD WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR 
19N129W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W SW TO 
21N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 
BE CENTERED NEAR 15N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO 10N130W 
AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS 
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE 
N TO NEAR 32N115W. UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS DERIVED FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 
12N131W...HAS BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE NW 
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE IT THINS OUT IN DRY AIR. THIS DRY 
IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N E 
OF 126W...AND ALSO FROM 17N-30N W OF 126W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS 
STREAMING EASTWARD RAPIDLY ARE NOTED N OF 30N. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES WNW TO A CREST NEAR 
10N87W...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA 
FROM 04N-10N E OF 91W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-120W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THIS 
RANGE THROUGH THU. 

$$ 
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-May-2015 15:56:24 UTC