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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N84W TO 07N124W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 
14N120W TO 22N116W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 40N117W 
TO 19N128W...AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA  
FROM 30N113W TO 22N115W TO 17N130W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH 
S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE 
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS IN A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE 
THROUGH THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE 
STALLING JUST SE OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF 
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG 
SW FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE 
TROUGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED 
ABOVE AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND LIGHT 
RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1033 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 
41N141W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 24N124W. 
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL 
SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE. 

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL 
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO 
NOCTURNAL  DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY 
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT 
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE 
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY 
WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO 
BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF 
OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU 
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... 
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE 
NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$ 
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Mar-2015 22:30:30 UTC