000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160351
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 07N78W to 05N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N105W to 08N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is active from 07N to 12N between 105W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh NW winds persist off the coast of Baja California to Cabo 
San Lazaro. This wind pattern continues between the subtropical 
ridge over the eastern Pacific along about 130W, and lower 
pressure over central Mexico. NW swell producing seas of 7 to 9 
ft continues to move through the Baja near and offshore waters, 
with early afternoon altimeter data showing peak seas of 9 to 11 
ft across the offshore waters between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San 
Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas of 6 ft or 
less are elsewhere W of Puerto Angel. Across the Gulf of 
California mostly moderate NW winds prevail, with seas 3 ft and 
less, except around 4 ft across the entrance to the Gulf. 
Northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
diminished to less than 15 kt, and extend to about 90 nm 
offshore.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will prevail across
the Baja California near and offshore waters through overnight, 
then diminish to moderate to fresh through Tue evening. NW swell 
of 7 to 10 ft will continue to move across the offshore waters of
Baja California, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, 
then gradually subside below 8 ft through late Wed. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere through 
Wed. Wind and seas will diminish further through Fri as high 
pressure weakens west of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region and
into the southern Nicaragua waters, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh
easterly winds then continue farther offshore of Papagayo, to
beyond 93W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds continue  
in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to near 03N. Light 
to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted 
elsewhere, except 7 to 8 ft seas to the northwest through
southeast of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, easterly gap winds will pulse to strong across the
Gulf of Papagayo region and most of the coastal waters of
Nicaragua tonight, then diminish to moderate to fresh through
Wed. A narrow plume of rough seas will extend westward tonight
and Tue, reaching the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf
of Panama will continue through Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate
winds and seas will persist through late Wed. Winds will
diminish further through Fri as a weak pressure gradient
develops across the local region and the western Caribbean. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,
covering the waters west of 110W. The associated pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds north of 07N and west of 110W. A surface low 
has develop along the ITCZ near 7.5N121W, where active convection
continues to the NW through NE, supported by a mid to upper 
trough to its northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
active near this trough from 04.5N to 11N between 113W and 126W. 
A small area of strong NE winds is located due north of the low 
between 08N and 12N, where afternoon altimeter data showed seas 
of 10 to 12 ft. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft continues to move through 
the regional waters, and is reaching as far south as 13N, mainly 
west of 118W. Southern hemispheric S to SW swell is reaching as 
far north as 17N, and is mixing with the trade wind flow, and has
also begun to merge with the NW swell across the region between 
10N and 17N. Meanwhile, a plume of fresh E winds and seas to 8 ft
in E swell emanating out of gap wind events farther east is 
reaching as far west as 95W from 08N to 10N. 

The northerly and southerly swell groups will merge along with 
shorter period seas attributed to the moderate to fresh trade 
winds to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas from 08N to 
20N west of 110W by this evening. Farther east, the plume of E 
winds and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish,
but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 7 to 9 ft 
south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will 
subside through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas 
in the trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late week.

$$
Christensen