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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161516
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1443 UTC Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds 
continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front will move 
into the Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure building behind the 
front will tighten the pressure gradient over the area, and help
increase winds to strong gales across Tehuantepec tonight. Winds 
are expected to diminish below gale force by Friday. The 
resultant plume of NE swell has propagated well southwest of 
Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft and higher currently reaching as 
far S as the Equator and as far W as 115W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 07N83W to 05N90W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 06N111W to 09N130W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 60 nm of the surface trough. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between
97W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 130W and 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special feature section for information about the ongoing 
gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

W of the Baja California Peninsula: Large NW swell is propagating
into the waters west of the Baja Peninsula, with seas of 9 to 13
ft prevailing. This large swell will generate very high and 
powerful surf along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja and 
mainland Mexico through Wed. Another set of NW swell will reach 
the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Thursday night. 
Seas associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft by Friday. 
Seas 12 ft or greater will spread across the offshore waters off 
the entire length of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. 

Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across 
across the entire gulf waters through Fri, except for a brief 
period of fresh winds Wed afternoon through Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong each night across 
the Gulf of Papagayo the remainder of the week. Elsewhere N of 
09N moderate offshore gap winds will diminish to light to gentle 
midweek. S of 09N light to gentle winds will prevail. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large, long period NW swell is propagating SE across the 
forecast waters. Seas in the 12 to 16 ft range prevail NW of a 
line from 30N116W to 10N126W to 07N140W. Seas of 8 ft or greater
associated to this swell prevail W of 110W. The next pulse of 
large NW swell will enter the NW waters Wednesday night, with 
seas peaking near 18 ft. This swell will build seas greater than 
12 ft over much of the waters N of 15N and W of 120W by Sat 
night. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Jan-2018 15:17:02 UTC