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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 262134

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2135 UTC Fri Aug 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


Tropical Storm Lester centered near 17.6N 115.8W at 26/2100 UTC or
461 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving
west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 120 nm
in the northwest semicircle and within 45 nm in the southeast
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere between 75
nm and 210 nm in the east semicircle. Lester will take a turn
toward the west while increasing in speed Saturday with this
motion continuing through Sunday. Lester is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E centered near 13.3N 136.5W at
26/2100 UTC or 1134 nm east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii or 1156 nm
east-southeast of South Point Hawaii moving west-northwest at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is within 210 nm in the
west semicircle. The depression will continue on a general west-
northwest motion in the next couple of days with a decrease in
forward speed, and is expected to move into the Central Pacific
this weekend. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a
tropical storm late tonight, and then to a hurricane once it
moves well west of 140W on Sunday. See latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more


The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 11N95W to 10N111W,
then resumes from 14N118W to 15N130W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the axis east of
93W, within 180 nm north of the axis between 89W and 94W, within
210 nm either side of the axis between 98W and 111W, within 240 nm
south of the axis between 124W and 133W, and also within 180 nm
south of the axis west of 136W.



The outer circulation of Lester continues to impact mainly zone
PMZ115 which includes the Revillagigedo Islands. Conditions will
improve through the weekend as Lester moves away from this area.
Otherwise, moderate northerly flow will persist across the open
waters along with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the Gulf of california,
mainly light and variable winds will prevail with seas 2 ft or
less, except in the northern Gulf where a locally tight pressure
gradient will allow southerly winds to pulse to fresh levels north
of 29N through tonight. These winds will build seas temporarily to
2 to 4 ft.


Light and moderate winds will continue to prevail on either side
of the monsoon trough for the next several days, with combined
seas of 4 to 7 ft mainly in southerly swell. In the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, northerly winds will pulse to fresh levels during the
overnight and early morning hours through early next week.


A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending
from 1020 mb high pressure near 30N135W. A weak surface trough
from 25N132W to 20N134W, the remnants of Kay, is disrupting the
ridge. This trough will move west of 140W on Sunday. The ridge
will yield moderate to fresh winds across the trade wind belt,
with combined seas ranging from 4 to 7 feet.