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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 08N94W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W 1009 
MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 1008 MB TO 07N130W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF 
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 
126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W THROUGH SOCORRO ISLAND TO 
NEAR 15N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ 
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 09N-22N W OF 125W AS WELL AS FRESH 
TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 
FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES 
GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO 15N123W TO 10N128W BY 
SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MON. A 
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 22N W OF 130W 
AT THE MOMENT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS 
THROUGH MON AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
LATE SUN AND MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF 
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A 
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES NEAR THE 
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE 
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W. 
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES 
W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD 
STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE 
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET QUICKLY 
MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL 
MOTION. THE AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET IS CURRENTLY AIDING THE DEEP CONVECTION 
FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 121W. THIS CONVECTION IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE 
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY 
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO 
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH AND LOWER PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY 
AND NE TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD 
FRONT

$$
SCHAUER



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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 03:18:54 UTC