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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N100W TO 
07N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N117W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...WITHIN 150 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 114W...WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
116W AND 124W...AND ALSO S OF 05N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...    

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO 
26N117W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT 
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO 
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 600 NM SWATH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM 
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY 
WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A RECENTLY DISSIPATED COLD 
FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N111W TO 27N123W TO 32N127W. GALE FORCE 
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT 
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION 
AND S-SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WITH OUTER ASSOCIATED FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MANAGING TO SPILL SOUTHWARD TO 29N 
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL SURROUNDS THESE 
WINDS WITH 8-11 FT N OF 26N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 126W. THE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE 
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE 
MORNING.

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 33N133W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 16N105W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH WILL  
ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED OR NEAR THE ITCZ WITH  
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N100W AND A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. 
THE EASTERN LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE 
THE WESTERN LOW MOVES TO 06N132W BY 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING   
TO 1010 MB.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 
WINDS CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE 
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Apr-2015 21:25:38 UTC