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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N93W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  07N93W TO 06N114W TO 07N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05.5N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM 
10N120W TO 10N125W TO 07N130W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 
15N114W TO 12N120W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 28N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE 
TO NEAR 19N109W AND ALSO WSW TO NEAR 26N140W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE  
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY 
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 17 FT WILL BREACH 30N140W IN THE NEXT 
SEVERAL HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY 
OF THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY 
48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE 
WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT 
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH 
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP 
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT 
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODEL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NEXT GALE EVENT BY EARLY WED 
MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 10-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
TUE NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
...DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KT THEREAFTER.

$$
LEWITSKY


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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Dec-2014 09:24:43 UTC