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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250823
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
823 UTC Sat Feb 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ currently over the forecast waters north of the 
equator. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent ship observations and satellite derived wind data indicate
moderate to fresh northwest winds continue off the coast of the
Baja California peninsula, between 1025 mb high pressure centered
near 31N125W and low pressure over north central Mexico. These
winds are diminishing, but lingering northwest swell up to 8 ft 
persists between Los Cabos and Socorro Islands. These seas will 
subside through the morning to below 8 ft. Fresh to strong 
northwest winds will continue over the southern portions of the 
Gulf of California with seas reaching 8 ft near Los Cabos into 
the afternoon. Winds and seas over the Gulf will diminish through
tonight as the low pressure shifts farther east and the high 
pressure builds over the region. Moderate to fresh westerly gap 
winds are possible tonight into the northern Gulf of California, 
related to a weak frontal boundary moving across the southern 
Rockies. The high pressure will maintain moderate winds and 
slight seas through early next week. Looking ahead, a weak cold 
front will move into Baja California and the northern Gulf of 
California Monday night into Tuesday, but with little change in 
winds or seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strengthening trade winds across the southwest Caribbean will
support fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo
starting Sunday night, and persisting mainly during overnight
hours through the upcoming week. Similarly expect fresh 
northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle breezes will persist. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong southerly winds are noted north of 26N and west of 134W 
ahead of an approaching cold front associated with a complex low
pressure system northwest of the area. Recent altimeter passes
also have indicated seas of 8 to 12 ft likely due to northwest 
swell over much of the discussion area north of 20N and west of
130W. A few showers are ongoing near 30N136W as well, but the
main areas of thunderstorms are north of the region. The winds
will diminish through today as the low pressure area lifts
farther north followed by weak ridging. The seas will remain 8 to
10 ft through much of the day, but will decrease in coverage from
east to west. By late Sunday, the front will reach from 30N127W
to 25N135W, although with light to gentle breezes and seas less
than 8 ft across the region. Little change is expected through
early in the week. While the ridge will allow winds to diminish
north of 20N, it will support fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N
west of 130W, which in turn will support seas to 8 ft along with
a component of northwest swell starting Sunday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Feb-2017 08:23:37 UTC