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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290244 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 123.1W AT 28/2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
110 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JIMENA AS A RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFYING HURRICANE WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE FEATURE OF ABOUT 
16 NM NOTED. IN ADDITION VERY WELL PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES 
ARE WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE EYE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE EYE. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES. 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1816 UTC THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A RATHER 
EXTENSIVE AREA OF 20-33 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM 
IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT JIMENA WILL BLOSSOM INTO A LARGE AND INTENSE 
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE 12 FT SEA 
RADII WILL EXPAND AS JIMENA APPROACHES 130W-135W. REFER TO THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N89W TO 11N99W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 96W-100W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-103W. 

...DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 

HURRICANE IGNACIO W OF THE AREA NEAR 14.6N 144.5W AT 2100 UTC 
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG 
WINDS THAT EARLIER IMPACTED A PORTION OF THE FAR WESTERN WATERS 
NOW HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W OF 140W. HOWEVER...LINGERING 8-9 FT 
SEAS ARE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N-17N W OF 138W. THESE SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 
28N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N113W. A WEAK TROUGH IS TO 
THE W OF THE HIGH FROM NEAR 30N133W TO 26N136W. WEAKENING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH WITHIN 15 NM OF LINE FROM 32N129W TO 28N132W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH IS ADVANCING EASTWARD JUST N OF THE 
NW PORTION. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 
32N135W TO 30N141W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE N CENTRAL 
WATERS BY LATE SAT WHILE WEAKENING. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HAS 
TRIGGERED SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF 24N135W. THIS ACTIVITY 
IS MOVING TO THE NE WHILE WEAKENING. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BROAD LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME 
OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO INTENSIFY. 

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE JIMENA A LARGE AREA OF GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN 17N-32N. GENTLE TO 
MODERATE SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA S 
OF ABOUT 05N...EXCEPT E OF 105W WHERE PATCHES OF MODERATE TO 
FRESH SLY WINDS ARE PRESENT.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20 
TO 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH  
TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 02:44:45 UTC