000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232121
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from northwestern Colombia
coast, just west of Medellin to 07N94W. An ITCZ continues from 
07N94W across 07N115W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen south of the trough from 03N to 06N between 
84W AND 88W, and also up to 70 nm north and 100 nm south of the
ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure near 
27N126W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is 
supporting gentle to locally moderate northerly winds and seas 
of 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Residual pressure gradient between high pressure along 
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains of 
Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh
N to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas across the waters southwest of 
Tehuantepec. Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft are present at the northern Gulf of California. 
Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in 
the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 6
ft in moderate NW swell are found across the offshore waters of 
central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds with rough seas 
off the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to mostly gentle with 
moderate seas late this evening. Moderate to fresh southerly gap 
winds at the northern Gulf of California will become fresh to 
strong during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight 
through Fri night. In the long term, strong high pressure 
building eastward from the East Pacific will cause northerly 
winds west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands 
to become moderate to fresh along with building seas by Thu 
evening.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Convergent easterly winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the southern offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the region. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft are occurring at the 
Papagayo region. Moderate with locally fresh northerly winds and
4 to 6 ft seas are present at the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to 
moderate N to NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Colombia, western Panama and the
rest of Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6
ft seas in moderate swell prevail off Ecuador and near the 
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds at the Gulf of Papagayo
region will pulse to between fresh and strong during the 
nighttime and early morning hours tonight through Thu night. 
Gentle winds at the Gulf of Panama will also become moderate with
locally fresh during this same time period. Rough seas off Ecuador
will gradually subside to moderate by Thu. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will continue through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1020 mb high near 27N126W is promoting light to gentle winds 
and 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell north of 15N 
between 120W and 130W. Moderate with locally fresh N to NE winds
and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen from the ITCZ to 15N west of 
105W, and north of 15N west of 130W. Gentle to moderate E to SSE 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail near and south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, trade winds from 15N to 21W and west of 125W 
will increase to mainly fresh by Thu as stronger high pressure 
builds north of the region. Seas under these winds are expected 
to build to between 7 and 9 ft. N to NE winds north of 15N 
between 120W and 130W will become moderate to fresh by Fri along 
with building seas. Little change elsewhere through this weekend.

$$

Chan