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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271548
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 10N91W, then resumes
west of a surface trough near 11N101W to a 1010 mb low pressure
near 10N116W. The ITCZ begins at 10N116W and continues through
09N125W to 10N135W to 09N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection are from 07N to 17N between 91W
and 105W and from 05N to 14W between 110W and 118W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough
east of 91W, within 180 nm of the ITCZ axis between 120W and
126W, and along the ITCZ axis west of 136W.  

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is over Central America moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. This wave will enter the eastern Pacific waters later
today. 

...DISCUSSION...  

A surface ridge axis extends from high pressure north of the
area to 25N125W to near 22N118W. Fresh to strong northerly winds
between this ridge and a front over the interior western United
States support combined seas just under 8 ft over our forecast
waters along 30N several hundred miles west of Baja California.
The ridge will intensify over the next two days which will
result in fresh northerly winds expanding southward to near 22N
between 122W and 130W along with combined seas of 8 to 9 ft.
Between the ridge axis and 17N, mainly moderate northeasterly
trades continue, with seas between 5 and 7 ft. 

The pressure gradient between low pressure along the monsoon
trough near 13N132W and the ridge to the north is supporting
fresh northeasterly winds within a couple hundred miles north of
the low. The ridge to the north will intensify over the next
couple of days which result in a broader area of fresh winds
with seas increasing to 8 ft within a couple hundred nm north of
the low through Tue, before the system exits our area to the
west.  

High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will support
enhanced Gulf of Tehuantepec Gap winds to 25 kt each night for
the next few nights. Models are hinting at enhanced Papagayo
winds occurring later this week. 

A very broad area of cross-equatorial sw swell will continue to
propagate northward over the forecast waters mainly west of 95W
and east of 125W through the first half of next week. Swell of 8
to 10 ft will reach as far north as 15N by Wed morning. 

$$
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