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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR 
28.5N133.5W 1002 MB. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. OVERNIGHT ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA STILL SHOWED AN AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE CENTER SO A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 00 UTC SAT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY 18 UTC LATER TODAY. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE TO THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N95W TO THE GULF OF    
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75-150 NM OF 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N104W TO 
09N117W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N117W TO 12N128W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION     
IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 
95W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 16W.

...DISCUSSION...    

HIGH PRES AT 1023 MB IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 32N123W TO 20N121W. MEANWHILE 
TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. BETWEEN  
THE TWO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES 
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS. 

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 15:16:44 UTC