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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W 
ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE 
FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25 
KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING 
BELOW 20 KT BY MON EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA 
RICA TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ 
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES WNW TO 08N115W...THEN DIPS SW TO 
07N130W...THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR 09N131W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUE W TO 
BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N112W TO 
09N123W TO 12N128W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N147W WITH ITS 
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 08-
23N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE INTERMITTENTLY ENHANCED 
WITHIN THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA 
ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 13N122W. UPPER LEVEL  
DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE...AND TO THE E OF 
THE UPPER CYCLONE...IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 270 
NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 13N105W. A SMALL AREA OF 
EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR  
LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL 
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC 
WATERS W OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH 
COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS 
TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 
FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY 
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS 
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.    

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON  
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT 
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK 
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH 
WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT 
WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO 
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$ 
NELSON



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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Feb-2015 03:18:12 UTC