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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 139.5W AT 27/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 
IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 80 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 
IGNACIO IS STRENGTHENING A LITTLE MORE. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A BAND OF  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF CENTER 
WITHIN AROUND 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 10N135W TO 07N140W TO 
07N145W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF CENTER FROM 10N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER 
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TODAY. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 117.7W AT 27/1500 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. JIMENA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED 
BANDING DEVELOPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE SE OF 
THE CENTER COVERING FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. THE 
STORM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRI MORNING 
NEAR 13N122W PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 09N94W TO 
08N108W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND N OF 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N129W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO 
AND TROPICAL STORM JIMENA...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE 
NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
LOCATED NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI 
WHILE DISSIPATING. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 
SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS 
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THESE 
COASTS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR 
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL 
WATERS ON FRI. 

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT 
MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 

$$
GR


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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Aug-2015 15:29:32 UTC