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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC IS HELPING FUNNEL WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL VEER SAT WHICH WILL DECREASE FUNNELING OF WINDS INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY SAT NIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 07N118W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N118W TO04N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND
111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
31N121W EXTENDS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR
30N120W TO 27N118W TO 20N125W...THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT TO 17N140W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT
OR LESS BUT SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS. CURRENTLY SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT ARE COVERING THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 124W AND 135W
WITH PEAK SEAS REACHING NEAR 10 FT. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL DECREASE...TO N OF
28N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W BY SAT AFTERNOON.  

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS...HELPING MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THIS RANGE THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR
LESS. 

$$ 
AL

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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-May-2016 21:11:37 UTC