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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160943
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds continue 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, but are diminishing very 
slowly in strength and areal coverage from recent days. Peak 
seas downwind of the gulf are currently as high as 15 ft.
Winds will continue to diminish slightly, though remain above 
gale force through Tue. A cold front will move into the Gulf of 
Mexico on Tue with associated high pressure building behind the 
front to tighten the pressure gradient over the area. This will 
again increase winds to strong gales across Tehuantepec Tue 
afternoon through Tue night. Winds are expected to finally 
diminish below gale force by Friday. The resultant plume of NE 
swell has propagated well southwest of Tehuantepec, with seas to 
8 ft and higher currently reaching as far S as the Equator and 
as far W as 113W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09.5N74W to 05N77W TO 10N88.5W TO 
05N92W. The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 08.5N126W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
02N to 08N E of 89W to coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 91W and 102W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 
nm N and 60 nm S of ITCZ between 94W and 118W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 
118W and 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

W of the Baja California Peninsula: Large NW swell that 
generated very high surf of 30-40 ft across the Hawaiian Islands 
this past weekend is propagating into the area forecast waters 
tonight. Buoys offshore of southern California have recently 
shown wave periods in the 15 to 18 second range, with seas of 9 
to 12 ft. This NW swell has reached the offshore waters of Baja 
California and will continue to build across the regional 
forecast waters through late Tue, peaking at 10 to 13 ft W of 
Baja California Tue afternoon through Tue night, and at 7 to 10 
ft across the remaining offshore waters between Baja and 
Tehuantepec Tue night through late Wed. This large swell will 
generate very high and powerful surf along the coasts and outer 
reefs of Baja and mainland Mexico through Wed. Another surge of 
NW swell will reach the offshore waters off Baja California 
Norte Thursday night. Seas associated to this swell will peak 
near 16 ft by Friday. Seas 12 ft or greater will spread across 
the offshore waters off the entire length of the Baja Peninsula 
through the weekend. 

Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across 
across the entire gulf waters through Fri, except for a brief 
period of fresh winds Wed afternoon through Wed night. 

See special feature section for information about the 
ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong across and 
downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo the remainder of the week, with 
seas downwind building at or near 8 ft each early morning. 
Elsewhere N of 09N moderate gap winds will diminish to light to 
gentle by midweek, with mixed swell maintaining seas 4 to 7 ft 
before the strong NW swell arrives early Thu, raising seas to 5-
8 ft. S of 09N light to gentle winds will prevail.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large, long period NW swell is propagating SE across the 
forecast waters tonight. Seas W of 120W have built to 10 to 16 
ft, with highest seas still over the far northwestern waters. 
The swell will move SE across the discussion area while slowly 
subsiding through late Tuesday. By Tuesday, seas 8 ft or greater 
covering much of the forecast waters W of 107W, and then W of 
100W by Wednesday. A next pulse of large NW swell will enter the 
NW waters Wednesday night, with seas peaking near 18 ft. This 
swell will build seas greater than 12 ft over much of the waters 
N of 15N and W of 120W by Sat night. 

$$
Stripling

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Jan-2018 09:43:24 UTC