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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE 
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP STATENDAM 
CALL SIGN PHSG MAKING TRANSIT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
HAS REPORTED MAX WINDS OF 64 KT AT BRIDGE LEVEL THIS EVENING. 
BASED ON THESE DATA CURRENT MAX SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
50-60 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG 
GALE FORCE WINDS FRI AFTERNOON...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS SAT 
AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS EVENT WILL BE RATHER LONG DURATION... 
EXPECT SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL TO REACH NEAR 
113W FROM 01N-14N BETWEEN 94W-113W BY SAT MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 08N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
08N95W TO 10N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
09N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE INTO THE THE 
NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS 
IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 
11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF FONSECA...LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS. EXPECT 
SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 
NEXT 12-18 HOURS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. 
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A 
COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING 30N140W FRI. THE NEW FRONT WILL 
BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NW PORTION AS WELL SAT FROM 30N132W TO 
24N139W. NW SWELL TO 10-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS 
AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

1023 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N125W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SUPPORTING A SMALL 
AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE ITCZ AND AN AREA OF COMBINED 
SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 09N 
TO 17N W OF 126W. THIS AREA OF COMBINED SEAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD 
AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

$$
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Nov-2014 03:24:18 UTC