000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230315
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from northwest Colombia to 07N79W to 08N89W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues to 06N104W to 06N120W to 03N135W and to 
beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W-119W. Scattered
moderate convection is 05N to 11N between 120W-125W, and within 
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 122W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is present west of Baja California, with a ridge 
axis that extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough 
that is over the Gulf of California is allowing for generally 
gentle to locally moderate winds west of Baja California. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern slopes 
of Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the open waters off
Mexico, and 3 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds winds and moderate 
seas will persist west of Baja California through late Wed. 
Winds will then freshen Thu through and Fri. Fresh to strong gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Tue 
before diminishing. Seas will peak to 10 ft tonight with the gap
winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas will 
prevail. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over most of
these waters, except off Ecuador, where seas are peaking to 
about 7 ft.

For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will persist across 
the region through the week. Seas will be mostly 4 to 6 ft 
primarily in SW swell, except 6 to 7 ft off Ecuador through 
tonight. Moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds will develop in
the Gulf of Papagayo Tue, then continue through the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed over the waters north of 20N. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds from 08N to 15N between 120W and 129W and from 05N to 18N 
between 120W and 140W, where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range due 
to a mix of long-period northwest swell and shorter period trade 
wind generated waves. Weak low pressure of 1017 mb is located 
north of the area near 32N131W, with a trough extending to 
30N131W, then southwestward to 28N133W and to 26N140W. No 
significant weather is noted with these system. Moderate to fresh
north to northeast winds are north of the trough along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft.

Elsewhere, mostly gentle trade winds are over the discussion 
waters. Aside from the seas in the tradewind zone mentioned 
above, seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, wind speeds and wave heights will remain 
similar through the week, with an area of 7 to 9 ft seas 
persisting roughly from 08N to 12N W of 130W. The aforementioned
weak low pressure is expected to move east-southeastward and 
enter the far north-central portion of the discussion waters on 
Wed. Moderate to fresh north winds will follow the low. These 
winds are forecast to reach westward to near 131W. Seas are 
expected to be in the range of 5 to 7 ft with these winds.

$$
Aguirre