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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 130.4W 1007 
MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM IN 
THE S SEMICIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY DRY 
ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE 
QUADRANT. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO 
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE THE 
SYSTEM BEGINS DISSIPATION. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS 
S TO 10N ALONG 88W/89W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE WAVE 
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W 
NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF 
WAVE FROM 09N TO 13N. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 
07N119W AND WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 138W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W 15-20 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. 

BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 07N119W 1007 MB WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL 
WAVE...MOVING W 15-20 KT. BANDS AND LINES OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS 
CIRCULATION...WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS THE NE AND 300 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES. THIS LOW PRES AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT 
CONTINUES MOVING W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N90W TO 08N108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN  90W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
45N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N133W TO NEAR 22N115W. 
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL TROUGH SEEN ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO INDUCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITHIN 
ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT 
SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX ENOUGH BY WED 
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 
LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
IN THE TROPICAL REGION IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE BUT WEAKENING 
TRADE WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 
10N-18N W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER 
WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS WNW. 
PRESENT SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO HIGHER 
RANGES AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS FROM 
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE 
ADDED INGREDIENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY 
MID-MORNING WED. THE SWELL AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK BY EARLY 
ON THU.

$$ 
COBB

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jul-2015 21:36:45 UTC