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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 14.8N 101.8W 1000 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 17 
MOVING NW 315 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 
55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 
NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. IT IS EXPECTED 
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NW PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... 
BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION 
NE OF POLO WILL AFFECT COASTAL MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND 
JALISCO THROUGH THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. 
SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 30.6N 113.3W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 17 
MOVING NE 035 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 
45 KT. ODILE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES N-NE 
INLAND OVER NW MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE COULD 
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES... 
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC 
AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N87W TO 10N96W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 13N114W TO 11N124W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 11N124W TO 14N135W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N140W 1011 MB. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N AND 
120 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W IS 
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. NW SWELL 
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-10 FT AS IT MIXES WITH 
BROAD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT LATE THU.

AFTER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND 
CLYCLOGENEIS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED W-SW FLOW SOUTH OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE IN 
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF TC POLO.

$$ 
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 15:30:24 UTC