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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250248
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Sep 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near near 21.8N 106.3W, or 
about 15 nm NNE of Las Tres Marias, 1003 MB, at 0300 UTC moving 
N or 350 DEG at 8 KT. Maximum sustained winds 35 KT gusts 45 KT. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the 
coast of Mexico from 21N to 24N. Pilar is expected to slowly 
track toward the NNW to N through Tuesday night and move along 
or just offshore of the coastline. Interaction with land will 
lead to a gradual weakening of Pilar, and is expected to become 
a tropical depression by Mon evening and then dissipate by Tue 
evening. Heavy rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides will 
be possible for Mexican states from Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, 
and southern Sinaloa through Monday night. See the latest NHC 
Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC 
for more details.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W TO 08N80W to low pres 
near 14N92.5W 1007 MB TO 11N115W to low pres near 13.5N124W TO 
11N133W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is N of 06.5N to the coast between 80W and 89W, and 
from 10N to 15.5N between 91W and 110W, and within 90 nm S of 
the trough axis between 116W and 136W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A high pressure ridge building SE across the waters north of 25N 
will aid in freshening NW winds west of Baja California Norte 
overnight. Elsewhere, expect increasing winds and seas spreading 
northwestward from near Cabo Corrientes to the southern Gulf of 
California as Tropical Storm Pilar slowly tracks NNW and weakens 
during the next few days. Fresh SW to W monsoonal winds well 
offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will maintain SW wind waves 
moving into the SE waters with seas 5-7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough near the coast of Central America from 
Guatemala to Panama will remain the focus for active convection 
in coastal waters the next few days. Expect moderate SW to W 
winds to prevail south of the trough through Tuesday night. 
Farther south, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will 
persist south of 05N through Tuesday night. Long period southerly
swell will decay and allow seas west of Ecuador and south of the
Equator to subside from around 7 ft to around 6 ft during the 
next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell generated by strong winds north of the area are 
producing 6 to 7 ft seas N of 24N between 116W and 125W. Seas in 
the area will continue to subside as the NW swell decay. Fresh 
to strong winds around low pres embedded in the monsoon trough 
near 13.5N124W are supporting a surrounding area of 8 to 10 ft 
seas in mixed swell. The low will shift to the ENE during the 
next few days. Otherwise, high pres centered well N of the area 
and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough will 
maintain moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds W of 120W 
through tonight. Low pressure passing north of the area will 
weaken the high, allowing trades to decrease during the second 
half of the week. 

$$
Stripling

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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Sep-2017 02:49:01 UTC