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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO LOCATED AT 22.5N 113.8W OR ABOUT 250 
MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 
UTC SEP 22. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 
MB. POLO IS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 07 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK TODAY BUT SLOW...THEN A TURN TO THE SW IS 
EXPECTED ON TUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  

THE CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH INTERMITTENT MODERATE CONVECTION 
FLARING WELL TO W WITHIN 45 NM OF 23N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED IN A BAND WELL TO 
THE NE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N112W TO 24N111W. POLO IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER LATER TODAY SURROUNDED 
BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 11.5N96W...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT TO 
NEAR 14N99W TONIGHT...AND NEAR 13N102W ON TUE NIGHT...WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGHOUT. THE 
OFFICIAL GRIDS DEPICTS WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT...SEAS TO 8 
FT...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW ON THU NIGHT...WITH THE LOW THEN 
TURNING MORE NW WITH THE 20-25 KT WIND FIELD EXPANDING OUT TO 
ABOUT 180 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
10-11N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...CONTINUES W TO AN
EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11.5N96W 1008 MB. SCATTEROMETER
WINDS INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 13N123W TO BEYOND
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 01-07N TO THE E OF 80W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 08N84W TO 13N97W TO 08N104W TO 06N115W.  

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED  
OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO 
FROM 90-100W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 27N136W WITH 
ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE MARINE AREA W OF 120W 
AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH GENERALLY NE-E 10-15 KT 
TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS 
DISSIPATING FROM 32N133W TO 29N139W. A SECONDARY NORTHWESTERLY 
15 KT SURGE WILL PUSH A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS 
LATE TUE...REACHING FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W LATE WED AS NW-N 
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KT W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
FROM THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 26N130W 
LATE THU. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 30N LATE THU...THEN 
SPREAD AS FAR S AS 26N BY LATE FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT IN 
MIXING NW AND SE SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N WITHIN 120
NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI AND SAT.       

$$
NELSON



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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Sep-2014 09:46:21 UTC