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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 120.3W 968 MB AT 2100 UTC 
AUG 26 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF 
CENTER....SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM N AND 
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE IN THE SW TO W LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW 
WELL SE OF THE CENTER...FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 123W. 
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 37 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE 
QUADRANT OF MARIE. LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 
THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELL FROM MARIE HAVE ALSO MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...AND WILL BUILD THROUGH WED TO PRODUCE 
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH 
EROSION LIKELY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON 
MARIE...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR 
MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA CENTERED NEAR NEAR 16.2N 127.2W 1005 
MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 26 MOVING SSE OR 150 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1005 MB. DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CAUSED BY THE 
OUTFLOW FROM MARIE...THE LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
KARINA IS TO THE SW OF THE CENTER...OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM 
ACROSS THE SW SEMICIRCLE. KARINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT 
LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 08N77W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 11.5N89.5W 1009 MB TO 08N97W TO 11N106W...WHERE IT REMAINS 
FRACTURED E OF MARIE. TROUGH RESUMES SW OF MARIE FROM LOW PRES 
NEAR 15N138.5W TO BEYOND 13.5N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL THIS AFTERNOON WAS CENTERED NEAR  
27.5N134W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. LOWELL IS 
STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM 
ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL. LOWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...SHIFTING W OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED NIGHT.

CONFUSED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF KARINA...LOWELL...AND MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E 
OF 100W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Aug-2014 21:46:03 UTC