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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
930 UTC Sat Jul 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

At 0900 UTC Jul 02, Tropical Depression Two-E is centered at
15.0N 117.8W or about 240 nm southwest of Clarion Island. Minimum
sea level pressure is estimated at 1006 mb. The depression is
moving west- northwest or 295 deg at 09 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt near the center. The
depression is experiencing significant southeast shear, but
numerous strong thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm to the
northwest of the center. Given the strong convection, the
depression is expected to intensify slightly and reach minimal
tropical storm strength near 15.4N 119.1W by 1800 UTC today, and
remain at this intensity through Sunday as it moves west-
northwest, eventually weakening to a tropical depression near
17.3N 125.5W by Sunday night. Refer to latest NHC public advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for additional details.

A 1008 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
11N106.5W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong thunderstorms are
noted within 240 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant, and
within 180 nm of the center in the southwest quadrant of the low
pressure. This system remains fairly broad and with moderate
winds, but is forecast to become better organized through today as
it drifts slowly to the west-northwest, reaching 14N111W by late
Sunday. Environmental conditions are becoming favorable for
tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

A tropical wave is analyzed north of 06N near 92W/93W moving west at
near 20 kt. The tropical wave is enhancing overnight thunderstorm
activity within 120 nm of the coast of Guatemala. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N84W to 1008 mb low pressure at
11N106.5W, to the tropical depression at 15.0N117.8W, to 13N135W.
The ITCZ continues southwest from 13N135W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within
210 nm either side of a line from 06N77W to 06N94W to 14N100W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted form 04N to 07N between 85W
and 95W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong thunderstorms are
also noted within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia and eastern
Panama.


...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Aside from the thunderstorms, strong winds and higher seas
associated with T.D. Two-E to the southwest of Clarion Island, the
main area of interest is off the coast of Baja California,
generally west of 115W, where northerly swell of 8 to 9 ft
persists. This swell is due to strong winds to the north of the
region off the coast of California between ridging to the west and
a thermal trough inland. The trough reaches across the Baja
California peninsula, and is supporting occasional southerly winds
to 20 kt over the northern Gulf of California. The trough and
Pacific ridge will weaken today, allowing the winds and thus the
northerly swell to subside subsequently. Generally moderate winds
and 4 to 6 ft wave heights will prevail through the middle of next
week in offshore areas. The exception will continue to be
southwest of Clarion where another possible tropical cyclone will
follow the track of the current current tropical depression.

S of 15N e of 120W: 

See special features section above for details on tropical
Depression Two-E and a surface low at 11N106.5W.

Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected across the Gulf
of Papagayo this morning, with these conditions spreading w
across the waters from 09N to 12N between 86W and 92W and seas
building to 10 ft. Only fresh drainage winds are expected on
tonight and Sunday night.

W of 120W:

See special features section above for details on tropical
depression Two-E that will intensify to a tropical storm today and
move into the area w of 120W later today.

A broad ridge extends from the north central Pacific though
25N120W. Moderate to occasionally fresh north to northeast winds
persist over much of the area north of the monsoon trough. Wave
heights of 8 to 9 ft are noted mainly north of 25N, related to
northerly swell penetrating south of 32N. The swell will subside
through today, just as T.D. Two-E migrates west of 120W and
continues westward between 15N and 20N into Sunday. The shorter
period swell produced from the depression will mix with the
somewhat longer northerly swell from 15N to 20N between 120W and
130W through late Sunday. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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