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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210954 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W TO 06N125W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 
113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 
134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE-E ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 112W 
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS 
NEAR 28N120W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS NOW ARRIVED ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO 
NW-N AT 20-25 KT AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS. EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL THEN 
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT 
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N. 

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY 24 HOURS WHERE 
SEAS WILL ALSO BE 11-13 FT...DIMINISHING TUE. NE WINDS AT 20-25 
KT WILL BLEED THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES STARTING 
TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N116W BY EARLY WED BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE WED.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N132W WITH A RIDGE  
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING WITH AN AREA 
OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS AND 9-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N 
W OF 130W...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS ON TUE WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH 
FRI. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT 
RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION 
EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...AND 20-30 KT CONDITIONS 
SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 28N BY TUE 
EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON 
WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU WITH WINDS BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS A FEW HOURS 
AGO INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF PRIOR TO PEAK 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WHILE THE LATEST RAP AND GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT 
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FILLING IN ACROSS SE 
MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...FURTHER 
INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE 
GALE EVENT TO END BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON NIGHT 
THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT 20-
30 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON 
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N93W.

$$
LEWITSKY



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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Dec-2014 09:54:43 UTC