AXPZ20 KNHC 270258
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Fri Aug 26 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Lester centered near 17.9 116.5W at 27/0300 UTC moving
west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
of the center, except within 60 nm in the southeast quadrant.
Lester will continue on a general westward motion while increasing
in speed this weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Madeline centered near 13.9N 137.4W at 27/0300 UTC
moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180
nm in the north quadrant, within 90 nm in the east quadrant, and
within 150 nm in the southwest semicircle. Madeline will continue
on a general west-northwest motion in the next couple of days with
a decrease in forward speed, and is expected to move into the
Central Pacific this weekend. Madeline is forecast to strengthen
to a hurricane once it moves well west of 140W by Sunday. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N94W to low pressure near
10N107W to 11N112W, then resumes near 14N118W to 12N122W to
16N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
10N between 78W and 93W, from 09N to 12N between 102W and 109W,
and also within 270 nm southwest of the axis between 124W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The outer circulation of Lester continues to impact the far
southwest portion of zone PMZ115 which includes the Revillagigedo
Islands. Conditions will improve through the early part of the
weekend as Lester moves away from this area. Otherwise, moderate
northerly flow will persist across the open waters along with 4 to
6 ft seas. In the Gulf of california, mainly light and variable
winds will prevail with seas 2 ft or less, except in the northern
Gulf where a locally tight pressure gradient will allow southerly
winds to pulse to fresh levels north of 29N through tonight. These
winds will build seas temporarily to 2 to 4 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light and moderate winds will continue to prevail on either side
of the monsoon trough for the next several days, with combined
seas of 4 to 7 ft mainly in southerly swell. In the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, northerly winds will pulse to fresh levels during the
overnight and early morning hours through early next week.
A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending
from 1019 mb high pressure near 30N132W. A weak surface trough
from 25N134W to 20N135W, the remnants of Kay, is disrupting the
ridge. This trough will move west of 140W on Sunday. The ridge
will yield moderate to fresh winds across the trade wind belt,
with combined seas ranging from 4 to 7 feet.