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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 115.9W OR ABOUT 350 NM 
WSW OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 300 DEGREES 
AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. INCREASING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING 
COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WILL CAUSE THIS 
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 09N ALONG 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD 
AT 15-20 KT REACHING NEAR 92W TUE MORNING AND 95W WED NIGHT. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 18N ALONG 104W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN IS OBSERVED FROM 13N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. THIS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 KT. 
WEAK LOW PRES AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR WHERE THE WAVE MEETS 
THE ITCZ AXIS BY EARLY WED.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N95W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W 1010 MB 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N136W 1009 MB TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 13N E OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 15N126W. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 13N127W TO 13N144W. DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ZONE CONVECTION W OF 128W.

NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR LOW NEAR 15N136W BUT AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST 
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...DUE TO PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. 
SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW 
WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TUE EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND 
SEAS N OF THE LOW.

N WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TUE 
MORNING WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL 
WAVE. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT...THEN AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT DURING EACH PULSE.

SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE 
SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN E OF 107W. SEAS 
WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

$$ 
MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Monday, 28-Jul-2014 22:05:41 UTC