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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190943
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Otis at 19/0900 UTC is near 19.0N 
127.9W, or about 1035 nm to the west of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula. Otis is moving WSW or 240 degrees, 3 
knots. The estimated central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 nm. A move 
toward the south is expected during the next 24 hours. Otis is 
forecast to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low pressure 
center in 24 hours, and to dissipate in 36 hours. The maximum 
sea heights are 14 feet, and forecast to reach be less than 12 
feet around sunset today, and to reach 8 feet by sunset on 
Wednesday. Precipitation: convective debris clouds and possible 
rainshowers from 19N to 22N between 125W and 130W. Please read 
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for additional details.

The center of Tropical Depression Norma at 19/0900 UTC is near 
21.6N 113.9W, or about 235 nm WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Norma is moving W or 280 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind 
speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Norma will continue 
to move NW during the next 36 hours. Norma is forecast to weaken 
into a post-tropical remnant low pressure center in 36 hours, 
and to dissipate in 48 hours. The sea heights will be less than 
12 feet by sunrise of today. The area around Norma eventually 
will continue to experience sea heights that will range from 9 
feet to 10 feet by early Friday, because of NW swell that will 
enter the forecast area by sunset today. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 24N between 
110W and 115W. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W/94W from 22N in the SW corner of 
the Gulf of Mexico, across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, into the 
eastern Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving W 10 knots. 
Precipitation: scattered strong from 12N to 16N between 94W and 
99W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the SW corner 
of the Gulf of Mexico, and in Guatemala and Mexico from 15N to 
20N between 90W and 96W. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough passes through Panama near 10N85W, to 12N94W, 
13N105W, to 12N117W, 15N124W, 15N131W, and beyond 12N140W. 
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 180 nm S of 
the monsoon trough between 87W and 90W, within 60 nm N of the 
monsoon trough between 87W and 92W, and within 120 nm N of the 
monsoon trough W of 136W. scattered moderate to isolated strong 
within 180 nm to 300 nm S of the monsoon trough between 105W and 
108W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the special features section for more 
information about Tropical Depression Norma. The wind speeds 
that are in the area where Norma is now will reach 20 knots or 
less starting after midnight on Wednesday, and remain at that 
level through Saturday. Northwesterly swell of 8-11 ft will 
reach the zones that are to the W of Baja California on 
Wednesday and Thursday, and then they will diminish around 
Saturday. Southwesterly swell of 8 to 9 feet, that is associated 
with the monsoon trough, should reach the zones that are to the 
south of southern and southeastern Mexico on Saturday.

Gulf of California...The winds will remain 20 kt or less, and 
the sea heights will be less than 8 feet, through Saturday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The winds will remain 20 knots or less, and the sea heights 
will be less than 8 feet, through Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the special features section for details about 
on Tropical Storm Otis. The wind speeds will remain 20 knots or 
less through Saturday, after Otis has weakened on Wednesday.
A NW swell event will begin moving across our northern border 
this afternoon at 30N with heights ranging from 8 to 11 feet.
This swell will propagate southward and reach 15N on Thursday, 
diminishing to less than 8 feet on Friday and Saturday.

$$
mt

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Sep-2017 09:45:10 UTC