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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170930
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec have strengthened overnight, as strong high 
pressure behind a cold front in the NW Gulf of Mexico continues 
to build SSE and the region. The strong gales across and 
downwind of Tehuantepec have reached near 45 kt and area 
expected to continue near 45 kt throughout the day. Winds are 
then expected to gradually diminish below gale force by Friday 
afternoon. The resultant plume of NE swell has propagated well 
southwest of Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft and higher currently 
reaching as far S as the Equator and as far W as 110W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W TO 08N84W TO 04.5N95W, 
where overnight scatterometer data indicates that the trough 
transitions to ITCZ and extends TO 09.5N138W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 
03.5N to 09N between 77W and 89W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection was noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 
99W and 110W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong 
convection was noted within 210 nm N and 90 nm S of the ITCZ 
between 111W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special feature section for information about the ongoing 
gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

W of the Baja California Peninsula: Large NW swell continues to 
propagate SE across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula, with 
seas of 9 to 12 ft prevailing. This large swell is generating 
high and powerful surf along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja 
and mainland Mexico and will continue through Wed, with coastal 
flooding possible. Another pulse of NW swell will reach the 
offshore waters off Baja California Norte Thursday night. Seas 
associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft by Friday. Seas 12 
ft or greater will spread across the offshore waters off the 
entire length of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. 

Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across 
across the entire gulf waters through Fri, except for a brief 
period of fresh winds Wed afternoon through Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong each night across 
the Gulf of Papagayo the remainder of the week. Elsewhere N of 
09N moderate offshore gap winds will diminish to light to gentle 
midweek. S of 09N light to gentle winds will prevail. The NW 
swell impacting Mexican coasts and coastal waters will arrive 
across the area waters Thu and Fri and raise offshore seas to 5-
7 ft outside of the higher seas generated downwind of the gap 
wind areas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large, long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the 
forecast waters. Seas in the 10 to 14 ft range prevail N OF 10N 
and to the W OF 115W. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated to this 
swell prevail W of 108W. The next pulse of large NW swell will 
enter the NW waters Wednesday night, with seas peaking near 18 
ft. This swell will build seas greater than 12 ft over much of 
the waters N of 15N and W of 120W by Sat night. 

$$
Stripling

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Jan-2018 09:30:46 UTC