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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

AT 0900 UTC JUL 31...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS NEAR  
11.5N 130.6W OR ABOUT 1575 MI W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1720 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO 
WAS MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO 
ACCELERATE SOME AS RIDGING TO ITS N STRENGTHENS. THE MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GUILLERMO 
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING NOW OBSERVED 
IN ALL QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION BURSTS 
INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N 
AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. AN EYE IS APPARENT 
INTERMITTENTLY. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A 
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF 
DAYS...THEREAFTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. 
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH ABOUT 42 HOURS THEN 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N98W TO 16.5N95W AND HAS BEEN 
MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE IF A LINE FROM 12N90W TO 
16N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05-14N ALONG ABOUT 110W AND IS  
MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W TO 07.5N91.5W THEN TURNS 
SLIGHTLY NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08.5N97W...THEN TURNS SW TO 
05N114W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. 

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL 
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF 04N79W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LIEN FROM 03N82W TO 11N88W...AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 04.5N91W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 99-101W AND 
FROM 19-22.5N 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 15N105W. A SMALL  
AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS 
FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 136-140W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8-E WHICH MOVED W OF 140W. 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE 
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW 
FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT 
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE  
TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING 
ALONG 10N ON SUN. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
EXPECT THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE TO BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT AT SUNRISE  
THIS MORNING AND THEN ONLY EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE THROUGH SUN 
NIGHT. THIS MORNINGS EVENT WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 09N BETWEEN 86-100W THROUGH LATE THIS 
MORNING THEN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF 6-8 FT 
SEAS TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH MORNING. 
ALSO EXPECT NORTHERLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF 6-8 FT IN AND JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SAT MORNING.   

$$ 
NELSON

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Jul-2015 09:45:43 UTC