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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SHARP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN 
ITS WAKE ALONG AND E OF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN IN 
EASTERN MEXICO. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS COMMENCING 
AROUND 00 UTC THIS EVENING...QUICKLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE 
BY 12 UTC WED IF NOT A FEW HOURS SOONER. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12 UTC THU... 
DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW GALE   
FORCE SAT AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS INDICATES 
SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 23-27 FT WITH N-NE SWELLS OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES CLEARLY INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 24N TO 27N W OF 
110W IN THE GULF WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH 
TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS 
WELL AS W OR ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...AND RIDGING NOSING DOWN IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING. 
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
SPILLING OUT SOUTHWARD TO 21N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY 48 HOURS. SEAS CURRENTLY UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE GALE FORCE 
WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 09N100W TO 
11N113W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N118W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 39N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO 25N140W AND SE TO 
17N111W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N114W TO 08N118W 
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE   
TROUGH AND ITCZ IN GENERAL IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. 

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW-W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGING AND TROUGHING SW-W OF THE PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 12 UTC WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
SLACKENS. 

MEANWHILE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FAR NW 
CORNER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROXIMATELY 240-300 NM W OF 140W 
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF 140W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS 
THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE MOVING CLOSER TO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. 
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP JUST SE OF 30N140W ON WED WITH 
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 
IT BY WED. ASSOCIATED SW SWELL OF 8-12 FT WILL COVER THE AREA W 
OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 19N140W BY 12 UTC THU.

MIXED SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 26N112W TO 13N120W TO  07N135W 
TO 07N140W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE ONLY REMAINING AREA OF SEAS 8-9 FT 
BECOMING CONFINED TO THE W CENTRAL WATERS BY 12 UTC THU AIDED  
BY FRESH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY FRESH TRADES JUST N OF THE 
ITCZ.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD IN 
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO COMMENCING 06 UTC THU THROUGH AT LEAST 12 
UTC THU. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT BY 12 UTC 
THU. 

$$
LEWITSKY


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 25-Nov-2014 16:04:15 UTC