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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200936
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
524 UTC Mon Feb 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure will build over
eastern Mexico behind a surface trough moving east across the 
western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, helping produce the next Gulf 
of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This event will be brief as winds 
peak near minimal gale force Tuesday night through early Wednesday
morning. Winds will diminish below gale force Wednesday morning,
and fall below advisory criteria Wednesday evening.

Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ extends from 09N115W to beyond 02N140W. No significant 
convection is noted at this time. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force
gap wind event. 

High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 27N121W extends a ridge 
southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail over the offshore waters along the coast of Baja 
California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Large 
northwest swell continues to push southeast while subsiding. Seas
12 ft or greater are now covering the area southwest of Baja 
California Sur. Seas are in the 10-11 ft range over the remainder
of the offshore waters off the coast of Baja California. Seas 
are in the 8-10 ft range in the waters off southwest Mexico and 
4-6 ft over the remainder of the offshore Pacific waters. Seas 
are in the 1-2 ft range over the Gulf of California. Seas will 
continue to subside off the coast of the Baja California, falling
below 8 ft by early Tuesday morning. Another northwest swell 
will propagate into the area and once agin build seas above 8 ft 
off the coast of Baja California Norte Tuesday afternoon. High 
pressure ridge will strengthen west of the Baja California 
peninsula midweek to the end of the week. This will strenghten 
winds off the coast of the Baja California peninsula by weeks 
end. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh 
during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then
diminish by midweek.

Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse to moderate to fresh 
during the overnight hours through Monday night. 

Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A 1021 mb high is centered over the northern waters near 
27N121W. A cold front is moving through the northwest waters, and
winds have increased over this area with fresh to strong winds
east of the front and strong to near gale winds west of the
front. Northwest swells continue to propagate across the forecast
waters. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering much of the area north
of 10N and west of 110W. The cold front has ushered in a fresh
set of northwesterly swells into the area, with seas reaching
near 16 ft over the northwest waters. Seas will peak near 20 ft
today over the far northwest waters before starting to subside.
The front will continue to shift eastward while weakening, and
is expected to dissipate late Tuesday. Winds associated to the
front will diminish as the front weakens, and are expected to
diminish below advisory criteria by late tonight. The
northwesterly swells will continue to propagate southeastward,
with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the forecast waters 
north of 10N and west of 115W by midday Tuesday. Areal coverage 
of 8 ft seas will then decrease through the week, with only a 
residual area of 8 ft seas over the waters N of 20N and W of 135W
by Friday evening.

$$
AL


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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Feb-2017 09:36:29 UTC