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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 06N120W TO 07N127W TO 05N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

DURING MARCH AND APRIL...A MONSOON CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL 
NE PACIFIC IS NOT PRESENT...AND OCCASIONALLY BREAKS DOWN WITH 
CONVERGENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR IN WHAT IS REFERRED TO 
AS A DOUBLE ITCZ STRUCTURE. A SECOND ITCZ IS SEEN S OF THE 
EQUATOR. THE PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN ITCZ IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
35N138W DOMINATES THE REGION. THE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 
AROUND 16N W OF 112W. THE STRONG HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD 
TONIGHT AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF SOCAL TO INDUCE 
GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS TO REACH 20-25 KT N OF 28-29N DURING 
THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS...BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE FACTOR 
WILL BE N-NW SWELL REACHING 12-14 FT IN NE WATERS N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. EXPECT PEAK SEAS WED NIGHT INTO THU 
MORNING. 

NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W BY WED NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW 
SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MIX 
WITH WIND WAVES AND BUILD SEAS TO 9-11 FT N OF 20N W OF 120W BY 
WED AFTERNOON.

MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION 
E OF 110W EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS TO 20 KT DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO. 
LONG PERIOD S SWELL CONTINUES TO FADE WITH SEAS 5-6 FT. ANOTHER 
BATCH OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE 
SOUTH WATERS TODAY AND COULD REACH THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND MEXICO BY LATE THU. 

PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WED MORNING...REACHING 20-25 KT BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...WITH 
COMBINED SEAS REACHING 6-7 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. LATEST MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER BRIEF GAP WIND EVENT WITH WINDS TO 25-
30 KT IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Mar-2015 21:31:06 UTC