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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 114.6W AT 29/1500 
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM N QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER 
AREA FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. ANDRES IS FORECAST 
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
A HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND 
WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 06N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. THE LOW 
PRES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N-NW THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT NOT 
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 101W...AND APPEARS 
TO BE SLOWLY AND AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD 
CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR 
THE WAVE AXIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE NEAR 15N101W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH MORNING 
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS 
ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY HOWEVER. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
IS BECOMING APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY RELATED TO THE 
WAVE...AND TO THE EAST OF A MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA TO 
THE EAST OF ANDRES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN A N-
NW AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES IN THE WAKE ANDRES.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF 
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER 
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.   

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE 
AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES 
APPROACHING FROM THE SE. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED COASTAL WINDS 
OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
AND THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT 
AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 210 
NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY. 
FRESH SWELL GENERATED BY ANDRES WILL BRING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS 
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 120W AND THE BAJA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH 
LOWER PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW 
FRESH GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN 
NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES AREA 
NEAR 06N88W...AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS 
MORNING...BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES 
ALONG THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 

ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
TO THE N AND THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS 
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 11N 
TO 16N W OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE 
PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT 
PASSES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS 
LOW PRESSURE INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE 
EASTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 10N123W IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT 
THE SURFACE...TWO DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER 
FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND NEAR 
THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W. BOTH 
BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN

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Page last modified: Friday, 29-May-2015 15:47:25 UTC