| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201545
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Warning...Hurricane Kenneth is at 16.3N 127.4W at 1500 
UTC, moving W, or 280 degrees at 13 kt, with a minimum central 
pressure of 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts 
to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed 
within 75 nm of center surrounded by scattered moderate to 
strong convection elsewhere within 120 nm either side of a line 
from 18N128W to 12.5N127W. Kenneth is expected to remain a 
hurricane for a couple of days before moving over cooler waters. 
Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under 
WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas 
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for 
additional information.

..TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 86W moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along 09N 
within 150 nm of the wave, but strong convection is observed 
futher W between 90W and 93W.  

A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N to 15N along 108W, and has 
been progressing W at about 12 kt over the past 24 hours. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along 10N 
within 120 nm W of the wave. This wave is becoming difficult to 
locate and may soon be dropped from the surface analysis.

A 1010 mb surface low is analyzed along the monsoon trough at 
08N116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed within 180 nm E of the low center.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W along 10N from the far SW Caribbean 
to the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 11N92W, then 
turns gently WSW through the embedded surface low previously 
described at 08N116W TO 08N119W where it loses identity. The 
monsoon trough resumes SW of Hurricane Kenneth near 14N130W to 
beyond 11.5N140W.  

Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 
150 nm either side of a line from 07N77W to 08N88W to 13N92W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 
120 nm either side of a line from 07N90W to 09N98W to 09N110W,
and within 90 nm of 09.5N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander E to W 
across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California this 
week with a weak surface low developing intermittently along the 
trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A NW to 
SE orientated ridge extends across waters just beyond 250 nm. A 
moderate NW breeze is forecast across the waters W of the Baja 
California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each 
evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja 
California, with 3 to 6 ft seas forecast throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will 
persist across the Gulf of California this week, except a 
moderate southerly breeze will surround the low pressure center 
that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight 
and again on Mon night with seas building briefly to 8 ft 
downstream of the Gulf waters near 15N95W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: gentle moderate nocturnal drainage forecast 
through this week.

Otherwise, light and variable flow expected N of the monsoon 
trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 
to 6 ft seas through the middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends from 32N133W to near 17N115W. 
Except as previously mentioned in the above paragraphs, moderate 
to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon 
trough and W of 120W. N swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas is 
currently observed along 32N between 125W and 132W will 
propagate S of 30N between 126W and 133W on Mon, and reach 
across the waters  of 24N W of 128W on Mon night with seas 
associated with tropical cyclone Kenneth moving into the area 
later in the week.    

$$
Nelson

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 20-Aug-2017 15:45:58 UTC