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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS 
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
A MAX OF 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT 
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN. 
NORTHERLY SURGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 20-25 KT 
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA  
AT 04N77W TO 04N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE 
ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 
08N117W THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N83W...WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 03N90W AND WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 10N126W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER ARIZONA TO A 
BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N135W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A ILL-
DEFINED CREST NEAR 05N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH 
AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION 
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
NE CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 500 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES 
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST 
OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ 
QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS 
TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 20N110W. A BROAD MIX OF 
SWELLS HAS RESULTED COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC 
WATERS W OF 133W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT 
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE CURRENTLY 
SUBSIDING TO NW AT 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL 
REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE 
FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 
FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS 
BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN 
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED  
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 
KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON 
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO  
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND 
MON NIGHTS.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL 
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. 


$$ 
NELSON



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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Feb-2015 21:58:31 UTC