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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291009
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED JUL 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 132.5W 1007 
MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 29 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 
150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A 
FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE FROM 45 TO 150 NM 
ACROSS THE N QUADRANT. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS THE 
DEPRESSION TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
THROUGH THU MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATES THE LOW BY LATE THU. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR 07N121W 1008 MB IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. 
BROKEN BANDS OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED AROUND 
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...AND HAVE 
INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOPED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE CENTER. 
HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...AND VERY NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT... 
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM 
N SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM SE AND 420 NM 
SW QUADRANTS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA 
AND IS POISED TO ENTER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER TODAY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF 
THE WAVE N OF 02N TO GULF OF PANAMA AND E OF 81W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INVOF 87W-92W...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT AND 
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE SE CENTRAL MEXICAN 
COAST. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 83.5W AND 96W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS INVOF 114W-118W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW NEAR 07N121W. THIS WAVE 
WILL LIKELY INTERACT OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE 
AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 09N112W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM  AND 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W 
AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 44N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S THEN SE THROUGH 
30N130W TO NEAR 19N111W. THIS BROAD RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE AREA N 
OF 18N W OF 130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
TYPICAL TROUGH SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO INDUCE 
NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THE GRADIENT 
IS FORECAST TO RELAX ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THESE WINDS 
TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE BUT WEAKENING 
TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 
14N-15N TO 28N AND W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY 
STRONGER WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AS 
IT TRACKS WNW. PRESENT SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD TO 6-9 FT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...AND THEN FRESHEN FURTHER THU AND FRI AND THE AREA 
OF BROAD LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 07N121W MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH 
THE TROPICS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS E OF 
90W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATE SHOWED NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT 
OFF OF THE NICARAGUAN COAST DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES NICARAGUA AND 
MANAGUA...EXTENDING WWD TO NEAR 89W...WHERE MAX SEAS WERE 8 FT. 
WINDS THERE WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND LIKELY FRI NIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW ALLOW WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH 20-25 KT.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAS BEGUN TO SPILL 
OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL 
ALSO PULSE TO A PEAK OF 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING 
HOURS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT EACH 
AFTERNOON.

$$ 
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 10:09:56 UTC