270 
AXPZ20 KNHC 241604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from the coastal border of
Panama and Colombia to 07N92W. An ITCZ continues from 07N92W
across 07N115W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring up to 130 nm along either side of the trough, and up
to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1027 mb high near
32N145W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is 
gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft west of
Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate with
locally fresh southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the
northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1
to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are present at the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly gentle N to ENE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are present across the rest of the offshore waters along 
central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the fresh south to southwest winds in the 
northern Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds this 
afternoon. Looking ahead, strong high pressure building eastward
toward Baja California will cause gentle to moderate northerly 
winds west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands 
to increase to fresh speeds along with building seas beginning on
Thu afternoon, and likely change little through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are in the Gulf of Papagayo region as indicated by earlier 
satellite altimeter data. Moderate to fresh north winds along 
with 4 to 6 ft seas are in the Gulf of Panama reaching south to 
near 05N. Mainly gentle ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in 
mixed moderate swells exist elsewhere over the Central American 
offshore waters. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period moderate southerly swell 
continue offshore Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh east winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong speeds during the 
late night and early morning hours tonight and again Thu night.
The moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama are expected
to change little through Thu night. Rough seas off Ecuador will 
gradually subside to moderate by Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds will continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure center of 1022 mb is located near 26N128W. This 
position is to the south of a weak low that is centered near
31N126W. More on this feature in paragraph below. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
from 09N to 15N between 111W and 141W and from north of the ITCZ 
to 27N between 111W and 140W as displayed in overnight ASCAT 
satellite data passes over those sections of the discussion area.
Seas associated to the trade winds are 4 to 7 ft, except for 
slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft west of about 134W and from 04N
to 17N. The combination of long-period northwest swell and 
shorter period trade wind generated waves over the western part 
of the area is sustaining the higher seas found there as noted in
the latest altimeter satellite data passes over that part of the
area. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds are ongoing along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Weak low pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed at 31N126W, with a 
trough extending southwestward to 28.5N127W and to near 27N129W.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are to the west and southwest of
the low to near 131W as captured by an overnight partial ASCAT 
satellite data pass. Seas with these winds are about 6 to 7 ft. 
Isolated showers are possible with about 90 nm east of the low.

For the forecast, the trade winds are forecast to increase to 
fresh to occasionally strong speeds by Thu as stronger high 
pressure builds east-southeastward over the northern and central 
waters. Seas with these winds are expected to build to between 7 
and 9 ft. The aforementioned weak low pressure is forecast to 
move in a general eastward motion through this morning, weakening
into a trough by this evening. Moderate to fresh north winds are
expected north of 28N and between 124W and 130W by that time 
along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft.

$$

Chan