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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302110 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 07N102W TO 06N119W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 09N122W TO 04N123W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N124W TO 04N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FIRST TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND
120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 41N132W.
LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW U.S. IS CAUSING
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS E OF 128W. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA IN A MIXED SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE
DURING THE NEXT 42-48 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
ARIZONA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N111W. THE TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW AND
TROUGH IS GENERATING S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29.5N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE MOVING SE
WHILE WEAKENING BY MID WEEK. FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

$$

ERA