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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 122.0W AT 28/1500 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS JIMENA BECOMING A LARGE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 
GREATER THAN 12 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT APPROACHES 130W-
135W. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N88W TO 10N100W TO 
10N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONG 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITHE IGNACIO HAS SHIFTED W OF THE AREA. THERE 
REMAINS AN AREA OF LINGERING 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 
136W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TONIGHT.  

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 
29N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N113W. OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE 
JIMENA...A LARGE AREA OF GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL 
BETWEEN 17N-30N. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20 
TO 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH  
TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH 
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 15:17:46 UTC