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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...AS A 1029 MB HIGH
EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM NE MEXICO-SW TEXAS BORDER TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 35-45 KT ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND ABOUT 200 NM.
A REINFORCING COLDFRONT IS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...AND WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT...REACHING 45-55 KT BY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND WILL BUILD IN
EXCESS OF 20 FT DURING THIS TIME. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT...THEN REMAIN 30-40 KT
SEVERAL MORE DAYS INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST STORM CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MON NIGHT. THIS
ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL
EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE CURRENT PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH AND
CONFUSED SEAS EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND ARE SPILLING THROUGH GAPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS BAYS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS...FROM
THE GULF OF PANAMA TO TEHUANTEPEC. A LARGE PLUME OF 20-25 KT NE
WINDS EXTENDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS TO NEAR 07.5N95W...WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT PREVAIL. A
STRONGER PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INCREASE THE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO 35 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS
COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
NICOYA TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS
IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST
OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-110W THROUGH MONDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N88W TO 03N100W TO 05.5N112W TO 05N129W TO
BEYOND 03N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF
ITCZ W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT W OF 120W...FROM
A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N127W EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N105W...AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA....WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 30 KT. SEAS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE GULF ARE STILL RUNNING 6-9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE
E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THESE FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 17-19N AND W OF
120W...WITH HIGHEST WINDS CENTERED NEAR 06N 135W. THE ENHANCED
TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 9-13 FT SEAS IN THE AREA FROM 06N-14N W OF
120W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT FROM 08N-14N W OF 120W. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 140W EARLY MON WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA SUN. FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 12-14 FT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR NW
PORTION MON.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. AREA OF WINDS
25 TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME.

$$
STRIPLING