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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH 
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 09N95W TO DRIVE 
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS HAVE BROUGHT WINDS 
TO GALE FORCE THAT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON. 
THE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY MON...ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TUE. SEAS RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 FT 
IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WIND WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN SHORT PERIOD 
NE SWELL REACHING DOWNSTREAM OVER 500 NM TO THE S-SW AND 
INCREASINGLY MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY MON 
AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 09N84W TO 12N89W TO 1010 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N95W TO 07N104W TO 13N127W TO 12N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
IS FROM 12N132W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 80W...FROM 
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 113W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 25N125W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 16N111W. GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADEWINDS PERSIST OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO THE NW OF 
THE HIGH FROM 30N123W TO 24N140W. EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES 
INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES NEAR THE FRONT LIKELY IN NW 
SWELL. RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS REVEAL 
SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT NW OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH CENTERED TO THE NW OF THE REGION SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG 
33N/34N TO THE NORTH AND RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS. NW SWELL DOMINATES AND IS CURRENTLY OUTRUNNING THE FRONT 
WITH SEAS OVERALL IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE...HIGHEST NEAR 30N134W.

SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS MOST PREVALENT FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 
121W AND 126W NEAR A 1013 MB LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 12N124W. THE 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIKELY ENHANCED IN PART BY UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGHING W OF THE AREA.

FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXTENDS OVER THE 
EASTERN WATERS BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA NEAR 16N87W AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS AMPLE 
MOISTURE PRESENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAXIMIZED IN 
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. CONDITIONS 
SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH 
SUN AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MON.

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Oct-2014 09:22:37 UTC