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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290233
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave axis previously along 97W from 08N to 15N has 
merged with the wave to its west described below as a broad area 
of low pressure forms south of Mexico.

A tropical wave axis is along 100W from 07N to 16N with a 1010 
mb low pressure along the axis near 13N100W. It is located 
within a broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico. The broad low area is moving in a 
northwest to north slow motion. Model guidance depicts that a 
more definitive area of low pressure may form with this system 
through Wednesday. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted within 60 to 90 nm either side of the axis from 07N to 
13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough extends from NW Colombia to 11N86W to 12N94W 
to low pressure of 1010 mb near 13N100W to 12N108W to 09N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N128W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed 
from 05N to 10N between 85W and 88W, and within 180 nm south of 
the axis between 103W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 120 nm south of the axis between 106W and 109W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwest winds prevail west of Baja 
California between high pressure to the west and lower pressures 
associated with troughing over Baja California and mainland 
Mexico. The high will meander west of the region through the 
middle of this upcoming week. By Tuesday night, stronger winds 
north of the area will support 8 to 9 ft northwest swell that 
will propagate over the waters west of Baja California Norte by 
Wednesday.

Over the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds are 
expected to prevail with perhaps fresh to strong winds 
developing over the northern Gulf of California Wednesday night 
as low pressure develops north of the region. 

Broad low pressure a few hundred miles south of central Mexico 
is forecast by the NWP models to possibly develop some through 
Wednesday as it slowly moves in a northwest to north motion. 
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue along and south 
of the coast of Mexico south of 16N the next few days. Localized 
flooding and heavy rainfall will be possible in these coastal 
sections as a result. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds 
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected over the Mexico offshore 
waters south of Baja California through the middle of next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from 
west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly 
north of 03N. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the trough axis, 
moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high pressure ridge will meander over northwest and 
north/central waters from near 32N132W to near 22N115W through 
early next week, hen shift westward into the Central Pacific. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected over northern waters with 
5 to 7 ft seas. The only exception will be fresh northwest winds 
forecast to develop north of 29N and east of 125W by Tuesday as 
the pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure 
developing inland over the SW United States. These winds will 
support 8 ft seas over that area.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in 
southern waters north of the ITCZ, with 6 to 7 ft seas building 
slightly to 7 to 8 ft Tuesday as northeast trades strengthen to 
20 kt mainly from 07N to 15N west of 130W. Seas are expected to 
linger up to 8 ft west of 135W by Wednesday.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Monday, 29-May-2017 02:33:28 UTC